by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2007 10:21:00 AM

The Census Bureau reported today for June 2007:

"a goods and services deficit of $58.1 billion, compared with $59.2 billion in May"

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is the trade deficit excluding petroleum products. (Blue is the total deficit, and black is the petroleum deficit).

Looking at the trade balance, excluding petroleum products, it appears the deficit peaked at about the same time as Mortgage Equity Withdrawal in the U.S. This is an interesting correlation (but not does imply causation). I had more on MEW vs. the trade deficit a couple months ago.

I think the declining trade deficit and the Wal-Mart stories are related.