by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2007 12:58:00 PM

We need better phrases than "pre turmoil" and "post turmoil" to describe incoming data. This story on the Philly Fed today describes most of the data as before the "changes in the financial markets".

From Reuters: Philly Fed factory activity stagnates in August

Factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region stagnated in August, with a measure of growth falling to its weakest level this year, a survey showed on Thursday.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index was at 0.0 in August, its weakest in since December 2006, versus 9.2 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 9.0.
...
A Philadelphia Fed spokesman said the index may not fully take into account recent turmoil in the financial markets caused by tighter credit conditions.

"We had a limited number of firms that were reporting since the changes in the financial markets," said Michael Trebing, senior economic analyst at the Philadelphia Fed.

We need to be aware, when looking at incoming data, whether the sample was taken before or after (during?) the changes in the financial market. For example, the recent Fed Senior Officer Loan survey was pre-turmoil, even though the data was ugly. And this Philly Fed report is mostly pre-turmoil too, and ugly too.