by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2007 08:40:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services

"The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $376.1 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent from the previous month and 3.2 percent above July 2006."

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the nominal and real YoY changes in retail sales (excluding food service). Note: real prices are adjusted using the PCE deflator, and are estimated for July.

This is a series with significant volatility month-to-month, but the trend apprears down.

YoY real retail sales are up about 0.5%, and that is very weak.