by Calculated Risk on 10/09/2007 04:07:00 PM

From San Francisco Fed President Janet L. Yellen: Recent Financial Developments and the U.S. Economic Outlook. Here are some excerpts. Housing was turning down before the credit turmoil:

... forward-looking indicators of conditions in housing markets were pointing lower even before the financial market turmoil began. Housing permits and sales were trending down. Inventories of unsold new homes remained at very high levels, and they will need to be worked off before construction can begin to rebound. Finally, most measures of house prices at the national level fell moderately. Notably, despite these declines, the ratio of house prices to rents—a kind of price-dividend ratio for housing—remains quite high by historical standards, suggesting that further price declines may be needed to bring housing markets into balance. This perspective is reinforced by futures markets for house prices, which expect further declines in a number of metropolitan areas this year. The downturn in house prices would likely be intensified by a simultaneous decline in employment, should that occur, since significant job loss would weaken demand for housing and raise foreclosures.

And on the impact of the housing bust on consumer spending:

Beyond the housing sector’s direct impact on GDP growth, a significant issue is its impact on personal consumption expenditures, which have been the main engine of growth in recent years. Indeed, data on consumption spending in the last few months have continued to show strength. The nature and extent of the linkages between housing and consumer spending, however, are a topic of debate among economists. Some believe that these linkages run mainly through total wealth, of which housing wealth is a part. Others argue that house prices affect consumer spending by changing the value of mortgage equity. Less equity, for example, reduces the quantity of funds available for credit-constrained consumers to borrow through home equity loans or to withdraw through refinancing. The key point is that, according to both theories, a drop in house prices is likely to restrain consumer spending to some extent, and this view is backed up by empirical research on the U.S. economy.

Indeed, in the new environment of higher rates and tighter terms on mortgages, we may see other negative impacts on consumer spending. The reduced availability of high loan-to-value ratio and piggyback loans may drive some would-be homeowners to pull back on consumption in order to save for a sizable down payment. In addition, credit-constrained consumers with adjustable-rate mortgages seem likely to curtail spending, as interest rates reset at higher levels and they find themselves with less disposable income.

Repricing of risk will be "contractionary":

Many of the liquidity problems afflicting banks and other financial market participants are gradually being resolved, but it’s not clear that all markets will return to “business as usual,” as defined by conditions in the first half of this year, even after that occurs. For one thing, many of the structured credit products that became so widely used may prove to be too complex to be viable going forward, and this would more or less permanently reduce the quantity of credit available to some risky borrowers. Moreover, as I mentioned, if financial intermediation that was routinely conducted via asset securitization and off-balance sheet financing vehicles ultimately migrates back onto the books of the banks, borrowing spreads and lending terms are likely to remain tighter given current limitations on bank capital and the higher costs of conducting intermediation through the banking sector. Most importantly, the recent widening of spreads appears to reflect a return to more realistic pricing of risk throughout the economy. This development may be positive for the long run, but it will be contractionary in the short run.