by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2007 03:03:00 PM

From the National Association of Realtors: Modest Recovery for Existing-Home Sales in 2008 as Credit Crunch Subsides

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September, rose 0.2 percent to a reading of 85.7 from an index of 85.5 in August. It was 20.4 percent lower than the September 2006 level of 107.6.

Here is the NAR Pending Home Sales data.

And here is the NAR forecast:

Existing-home sales are projected at 5.67 million this year, edging up to 5.69 million in 2008, in comparison with 6.48 million in 2006 which was the third highest year on record. Existing-home prices are expected to decline 1.7 percent to a median of $218,200 for all of this year and hold essentially even in 2008 at $218,300.

Another downward revision (a monthly ritual for the NAR), but they are getting closer with only one more downward revision scheduled for December. The NAR price forecast is a complete joke too.

Note that Pending Home Sales lead existing home sales by about 45 days. So this September report is partially for October sales and partially for November. The 6.5% decline in August Pending Home sales will also impact the October existing home sales report (due on Nov 28th).