by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2008 12:55:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image. The NAHB reports that builder confidence was at 19 in January, up from a revised 18 in December. Confidence in January would have been at a record low without the revision to December.

Here are the individual components. The slight increase in the HMI was mostly because builders are hoping for a slight increase in sales over the next 6 months. "Hoping" is the right word.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Virtually Unchanged In January

Builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes was virtually unchanged for a fourth consecutive month in January as mortgage-market problems and inventory issues continued to pose challenges, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI rose a single point to 19 this month following a downwardly revised 18 reading in December and 19 readings in both October and November of 2007.
...
“The HMI has held within a narrow two-point range for the past five months, indicating that builder views of housing market conditions essentially haven’t changed over that time,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. ...

In January, the index gauging current sales conditions for single-family homes remained unchanged at 19, while the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months rose two points to 28. Meanwhile, the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose one point to 14.

Regionally, the HMI results were mixed in January. The Northeast posted no change at 20, while the Midwest reported a two-point gain to 17 and the South registered a three-point gain to 23. The West posted a five-point decline to an HMI reading of 13.