by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2008 06:39:00 PM

From MarketWatch: Analysts at American Economic Association now see recession as a given (hat tip FFDIC)

Many analysts gathered at the American Economic Association's two-day annual meeting spoke of a recession as almost a given but differed over how severe it will be.

As Roubini noted, the debate has shifted to how severe the recession will be.

And from Bloomberg: Feldstein Says Recession Odds Now Higher Than 50% (hat tip Risk Capital)

Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, head of the group that dates economic cycles in the U.S., said the odds of a recession are more than 50 percent after a report showing the unemployment rate jumped.

``We are now talking about more likely than not,'' Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said in an interview yesterday in New Orleans. ``I have been saying about 50 percent. This now pushes it up a bit above that.''