by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2008 02:14:00 PM

Here is a graph of Not Seasonally Adjusted existing home sales for 2005 through 2008.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows that sales have plunged in January 2008 compared to the previous three years. This also shows that January is typically the least important month of the year for existing home sales.

The data for March will be much more important since that is the beginning of the Spring selling season.

The second graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

January 2008 (4.89 million SAAR) was the weakest January since 1998 (4.37 million SAAR).

Finally the inventory increase of about 5% from December to January was typical. Last year, from December 2006 to January 2007, inventory increased 2.5% (from 3.45 millon to 3.539 million). The total inventory increase in 2007 was almost 33% from December 2006 to July 2007 (4.561 million).

A similar inventory increase this year would put inventory at 5.2 million or about 15% above the all time record set last July.