by Calculated Risk on 3/11/2008 09:49:00 AM

The Census Bureau reported today for January 2008:

"a goods and services deficit of $58.2 billion, up from $57.9 billion in December, revised. January exports were $2.4 billion more than December exports of $145.9 billion. January imports were $2.7 billion more than December imports of $203.7 billion."

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is the trade deficit excluding petroleum products. (Blue is the total deficit, and black is the petroleum deficit).

The ex-petroleum deficit is falling fairly rapidly, almost entirely because of weak imports (export growth is still strong).

Unlike the previous decline in the trade deficit (during the '01 recession), the value of petroleum imports - in dollar terms - are still strong. In barrels, imports appear to be flat year over year.

The trade deficit is mostly from oil imports and China. This now reminds me somewhat of the early '80s when the deficit was mostly oil and Japan.