by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2008 11:11:00 AM

This graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real (inflation adjusted) retail sales since 1993.

Click on graph for larger image.

To calculate the real change, the monthly PCE price index from the BEA was used (February PCE prices estimated as the same increase as January).

Although the Census Bureau reported that nominal retail sales increased 2.4% year-over-year, real retail sales declined over 1% (on a YoY basis). This is a recessionary level for retail sales.