by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2008 12:53:00 PM
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
JPMorgan: Conference Call Comments
From the Q&A: (hat tip Brian)
No stabilization in home equity portfolio:
Analyst Question: Just a question on whether you're seeing anything that would give you some signs of stabilization of the loss and delinquency rates in the home equity portfolio?And on the deteriorating prime mortgage portfolio:
JPM: No, it's exactly what we saw, higher, more houses are going negative equity, roll rates are high, home prices we expect to still go down. We have not seen it.
Analyst: You talked a little bit about prime mortgage and that it's definitely getting worse. But I look at a 48 basis point charge-off ratio on and say that's pretty bad. From that as a base, how much worse do you envision it getting or could it get?And on Credit Card losses:
JPM: You know, first of all, the risk factors in prime mortgage are exactly the same as in elsewhere, which is negative home prices, high LTV, things like that, and you know, I think it will probably get a little bit worse and we probably owe you a better answer on that. We did not -- but it's hard in almost all these mortgage areas to say exactly what's going to happen to behavior. You can guess as well as we can what's going to happen to home prices. We expect it will go down another 7, 8, 9% in '08.
“Outlook, 4.5 to 5% full year losses trending higher as we get through the rest of the year and probably a little bit of an effect of slowing card spend which is what we've seen in the past couple of weeks.”How many companies - from GE to JPM - have said they saw a slowdown in March?
all emphasis added