by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2008 01:00:00 PM

"[T]he message is very clear: The single-family housing market is still deteriorating..."
NAHB President Sandy Dunn

"[T]he housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far. In fact, conditions have continued to deteriorate in recent times...”
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders

Click on graph for larger image. The NAHB reports that builder confidence was at 19 in May, from 20 in April. Usually housing bottoms look like a "V"; this one will probably look more like an "L". (this refers to activity like starts and sales, but will probably also be apparent in the confidence survey).

Here are the individual components. Note that "present sales" is now at an all time low of 17.

From NAHB: Builder Confidence Edges Downward In May

Home builders remained considerably downbeat as market conditions continued to erode in May, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI fell a single point to 19, bringing it within one point of the record low 18 set in December 2007 (the series began in January of 1985).

“With the HMI hovering in the historically low two-point range that’s prevailed over the past nine months, the message is very clear: The single-family housing market is still deteriorating ..." said NAHB President Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. ...

“Despite the Federal Reserve’s concerted efforts to lower short-term interest rates, free up credit markets and shore up the national economy, the housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far. In fact, conditions have continued to deteriorate in recent times,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “The latest HMI shows that even fewer builders now foresee market conditions improving over the next six months compared with our April survey, and builder ratings of buyer traffic through model homes also have dropped off over the past month on a seasonally adjusted basis. ...”
...
The HMI’s component index gauging current sales conditions declined one point to 17 in May — its lowest level since the series began in January 1985. Meanwhile, the component gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined three points to 27, and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers declined two points to 17.

The HMI fell in three out of four regions in May, with a four-point decline to 18 registered in the Northeast, a three-point decline to 12 registered in the Midwest (also an all-time low) and a two-point decline to 22 posted in the South. The West posted a three-point gain to 20 this month but remained well below the level of a year earlier.