by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2008 11:01:00 AM

From the Radian conference call this morning:

“We continue to see the poorest relative performance in our Alt-A book and California and Florida continue to heavily influence overall portfolio performance. 60% of the increase in defaults in Q1 was attributable to Alt-A loans and 50% of the additional 1st lien reserves can be attributed to California and Florida . We estimate the peak to trough national price declines in a range between 8-13% using the OFHEO index. That would be in line with the Case Shiller approximated range of 16-26%. We could clearly see declines in areas of California and Florida that are twice the national rate.”