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Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity Remains Generally Weak

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2008 01:58:00 PM

From the Fed's Beige Book.

Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity remained generally weak in late April and May. ... Consumer spending slowed further since the last report.
The last report was fairly negative on consumer spending, so to say "spending slowed further" is significant.

On Real Estate and Construction:
Residential real estate markets were generally weak across most of the nation. ... Inventory levels of new and existing homes remained high or were rising in New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, and San Francisco. Home sales prices decreased somewhat in Boston, Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Francisco, but remained relatively stable in Richmond and Chicago. The New York and Chicago Districts noted that some potential buyers had difficulty in obtaining financing. ... Richmond and San Francisco noted an increase in home foreclosures.

Commercial real estate conditions varied in April and May, with some Districts reporting that activity had softened. Leasing activity eased in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco. Minneapolis, however, reported that market activity was up modestly, while activity was mixed across the St. Louis District. Vacancy rates edged higher in Boston, Kansas City, and San Francisco, as well as in pockets of the Richmond and St. Louis Districts. Absorption was negative in Boston and in Minneapolis for both office and manufacturing space. Overall rents were on the rise in New York, but were stable or beginning to slip in Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Kansas City. Sales trended downward according to the New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City Districts.
Commercial Real Estate (CRE) is just starting to slump, and the residential bust is continuing.

On rising prices:
Business contacts in most Districts reported increases in input prices since the last report, especially prices for energy, petroleum derivatives, metals, plastics, chemicals, and food. Manufacturing contacts in several Districts reported some ability to pass along the higher costs to customers and contacts in the Cleveland District noted that they are considering additional price increases in the near future if input costs continue to rise.
Overall this is a pretty negative Beige Book with a weakening economy and rising prices.