by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2008 06:10:00 PM

UPDATE: I remain very bearish on housing, especially on prices and existing home sales.

***bumped*** have fun!

There is wide disagreement in the comments on how much further New Home Sales will decline. Last year we had a contest on existing home sales (winners here). Note: although I didn't enter the contest, I predicted, at the end of 2006, existing home sales of 5.6 to 5.8 million for 2007.

So, for fun, here is a little contest to predict New Home sales for 2008 and 2009.

First, a little help ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows annual New Home sales vs. New Home sales through July for each year.

Through July this year, there have been 327K New Homes sold (subject to revision). For the last 45 years, the median number of new homes sold through July is 61%, so 2008 is currently on pace for 534K homes sold.

The rate of sales (SAAR) has been declining all year, just like the previous two years, so I think sales will be below the normal ratio of July to Annual sales, and I'm going to pick 515K for 2008.

For 2009, I think sales will be about the same as 2008 or pick up slightly. My guess is a slight pick-up in sales or about 540K in 2009 (although I will not change my contest pick, I might change my view).

If you'd like to enter, please just post a comment in a format like this:

CR's picks:
2008: 515K
2009: 540K

Best of luck to all (winners each year will be announced in February of the following year - before all revisions).