by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2008 10:04:00 AM

From the NAR: Near-Term Home Sales to Stay in Narrow Range

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, fell 3.2 percent to 86.5 from an upwardly revised reading of 89.4 in June, which had risen 5.8 percent from May. The July index remains 6.8 percent below July 2007 when it stood at 92.8.

The Pending Home Sales index leads existing home sales by about 45 days, so this suggests existing home sales in September will be off slightly.

For some graphs comparing existing home sales to pending home sales, see: Do Existing Home Sales track Pending Home Sales? The answer is yes - they do track pretty well.