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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Predictions and Emails

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2008 09:08:00 PM

Predictions:

  • Bernanke and Paulson will enjoy tomorrow even less than today (testifying before the House Financial Services Committee at 2:30PM ET). The House is the key to passing any plan and I expect some fireworks.

    Hopefully there will be some questions about pricing tomorrow, and maybe transparency (a website with all transactions!).

    If you want to have an impact - call your Congressman - the vote will be closer in the House.

  • A plan will probably be passed within a week or so. The plan will probably include some type of contingent equity participation, and some oversight - and everyone will declare victory.

  • Goldman will buy some commercial banking assets by Friday. This is just a guess because of recent events: Goldman becoming a bank holding company, and Buffett investing in Goldman.

    Emails: I've been swamped with emails this week and especially today. Many of the emails contained detailed questions or thoughtful alternative plans. I apologize that I'm unable to answer all the emails, and I sincerely appreciate the thoughts and questions. Best to all.