by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2008 06:48:00 PM

Several years ago I predicted that the National Debt would reach $10 trillion by the time President Bush left office. For a short period (thanks to the housing bubble), it looked like the deficit would be less than I projected.

Back in March, with the housing bust starting to hit government revenues, it started looking like the $10 trillion projection had a chance.

So here is an update: The current National debt is $9.727 trillion (see TreasuryDirect) as of Sept 19, 2008. That leaves the debt about $273 billion short of my projection with 4 months to go.

Last year, from Sept 19, 2007 to Jan 20, 2008, the debt increased $185 billion. That is not quite a fast enough pace to make $10 Trillion by next January. But the debt is accumulating much faster this year.

Over the last month, the National Debt has increased $112 billion compared to $34 billion for the same period last year. At this rate, the National Debt will blow by $10 trillion before Bush leaves office.

Add in the Paulson plan, and it's not even going to be close.