by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2008 04:31:00 PM

Andrea Chang at the LA Times writes: Retailers cutting back on holiday hiring

A recent survey of more than 1,000 managers responsible for hiring hourly workers found that each manager planned on hiring an average of 3.7 seasonal employees this year, roughly 33% less than the 5.6 workers they hired during last year's holiday period.
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Last year there were 618,000 holiday hires in the retail sector in November and December, according to the National Retail Federation [NRF]. But that number is likely to be significantly lower this year, said Daniel Butler, vice president of retail operations with the group.

He predicted that holiday hiring numbers would drop to 2001 levels, when consumers reined in their spending after 9/11. Retailers made just 402,500 holiday hires that year.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) retail employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

NOTE: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Usually retailers start hiring seasonal workers in October (maybe 15% of the temporary holiday workforce) and add over 700 thousand total seasonal employees. Based on the above survey and the forecast from the NRF, retailers will probably only add around 400 to 450 thousand seasonal employees this holiday season.

In early 2007, I was repeatedly asked "Where is the consumer bust?" I answered: "This is just Act II ... but if the play unfolds as I suspect it might, Hamlet dies in Act V". The consumer would be the last to go.

Well, Hamlet is now dead. The consumer recession has arrived just in time for the holidays.