by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2008 05:02:00 PM

"As a result of the credit crisis and the economic uncertainty, our guidance reflects slower end- market device growth for 2009 than previously anticipated and a significant contraction in channel inventory in the first and second fiscal quarters. While we are estimating strong growth for CDMA-based devices in calendar year 2009, driven by a shift to emerging markets, this growth is meaningfully less than we would have forecast just a few weeks ago."
Dr. Paul E. Jacobs, CEO of Qualcomm, Nov 6, 2008 emphasis added

Note: just using Qualcomm as an example (hat tip Brian)

From Saul Hansell at the NY Times: Cheerful Gloom From Mary Meeker:

In the first session of the Web 2.0 conference in San Francisco, Ms. Meeker terrified the audience with the prospects of the coming recession, then offered a vision of ultimate redemption. (You can see her slides here.)

Her main point was that advertising and sales of technology products are very closely correlated to economic activity. And since both gross domestic product and consumer spending have started falling, the prospects for both don’t look good.

Investment in equipment and software has been negative for the last three quarters according to the BEA. And it appears the tech investment slump is about to get worse.


Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the year over year change for residential investment vs. investment in equipment and software. Note that residential investment is shifted 3 quarters into the future because changes in residential investment usually lead changes in equipment and software by about 3 quarters. This relationship isn't perfect, but I expect equipment and software investment to decline for the next several quarters.

And a YouTube favorite ... Here Comes Another Bubble by The Richter Scales