by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2008 03:25:00 PM
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Credit Crisis Indicators
The stunning flight to treasuries continues across the board.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
The 10-year yield fell to a record low of 2.59% today.
The graph shows the 10 year yield since 1962. The smaller graph shows the teh year yield for this year - talk about cliff diving!
The yield on 3 month treasuries is 0.005% (bad). Let's just call it zero! I think we know where the banks are parking all that TARP money - in three month treasuries!
Here are a few other indicators of credit stress once again suggesting little progress over the last few days.
The TED spread is stuck above 2.0, and still too high. The peak was 4.63 on Oct 10th. I'd like to see the spread move back down to 1.0 or lower. A normal spread is around 0.5. |
This is the spread between high and low quality 30 day nonfinancial commercial paper. If the credit crisis eases, I'd expect a significant decline in this spread - and the graph makes it clear this indicator is still in crisis.
For the LIBOR, the TED spread, and the two-year swap, there has been clear progress - but there is still a ways to go. For the A2P2 spread (and all treasury yields), the markets are still in crisis.
The weekly Federal Reserve balance sheet update will be released this afternoon ... might be interesting.