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Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Credit Crisis Indicators

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2008 02:14:00 PM

The progress has been slow, so I've stopped posting this daily. It looks like there has been some small progress over the last week ...

  • The yield on 3 month treasuries is 0.005% (bad). Call it zero! I think we know where the banks are parking all that TARP money - in three month treasuries! Heck, the four week yield was briefly negative yesterday.

  • The three month LIBOR has decreased to 2.1% from 2.19% last week. The three-month LIBOR rate peaked (for this cycle) at 4.81875% on Oct. 10. (slightly better)

    TED Spread
  • The TED spread declined to 2.09 from 2.18 last week. (slightly better)

    The TED spread is stuck above 2.0, and still too high. The peak was 4.63 on Oct 10th. I'd like to see the spread move back down to 1.0 or lower. A normal spread is around 0.5.


  • A2P2 Spread
  • The A2P2 spread increased to 5.17 from 4.64 last week. The peak was 5.86 on Friday following Thanksgiving (probably related to the holiday). This is way too high. (Worse).

    This is the spread between high and low quality 30 day nonfinancial commercial paper. If the credit crisis eases, I'd expect a significant decline in this spread - and the graph makes it clear this indicator is still in crisis.

    Each news story of a major bankruptcy or default (like the Tribune Co.) sends this spread higher again.

    Two Year Swap
  • The two year swap spread from Bloomberg: 109.25, down from 115.00. (slightly better). This spread peaked at near 165 in early October, so there has been significant progress, but I'd like to see this below 100.


  • For the LIBOR, the TED spread, and the two-year swap, there has been some more progress. For the A2P2 spread (and all treasury yields), the markets are still in crisis.