by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2008 02:14:00 PM
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Credit Crisis Indicators
The progress has been slow, so I've stopped posting this daily. It looks like there has been some small progress over the last week ...
The TED spread is stuck above 2.0, and still too high. The peak was 4.63 on Oct 10th. I'd like to see the spread move back down to 1.0 or lower. A normal spread is around 0.5. |
This is the spread between high and low quality 30 day nonfinancial commercial paper. If the credit crisis eases, I'd expect a significant decline in this spread - and the graph makes it clear this indicator is still in crisis.
Each news story of a major bankruptcy or default (like the Tribune Co.) sends this spread higher again.
For the LIBOR, the TED spread, and the two-year swap, there has been some more progress. For the A2P2 spread (and all treasury yields), the markets are still in crisis.