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Thursday, December 04, 2008

Weekly Unemployment Claims

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2008 08:46:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending Nov. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 509,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 530,000. The 4-week moving average was 524,500, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average of 518,250.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 22 was 4,087,000, an increase of 89,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,998,000.
It is time for a long term graph!

Weekly Unemployment Claims Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the four week moving average of initial weekly unemployment claims. The moving average is at 524,500, the highest level since the early '80s - and higher than the peaks of the last two recessions.

This graph is not adjusted for changes in population or increases in the workforce.

Continued claims are now at 4.087 million - the highest level in 26 years.

Note that the weekly unemployment claims tends to peak towards the end of a recession - just something to remember.

Also, the Monster Employment index came in very weak:
The Monster Employment Index fell seven points in November, as further economic uncertainty and workforce reductions continued to weigh on U.S. online recruitment activity. Year-over-year, the Index is now down 22 percent, with U.S. online job availability at its lowest level since 2004.
The BLS reports tomorrow ...