by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2009 10:00:00 AM

Residential construction spending is 59.3% below the peak of early 2006.

Non-residential construction spending is 8.5% below the peak of last September.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential construction spending is still declining, and now nonresidential spending has peaked and will probably decline sharply over the next 18 months to two years.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change for private residential and nonresidential construction spending.

Nonresidential spending is now slightly negative on a year-over-year basis, and will turn strongly negative going forward. Residential construction spending is still declining, although the YoY change will probably be less negative going forward.

These are two key stories for 2009: the collapse in private non-residential construction, and the probably bottom for residential construction spending.

From the Census Bureau: February 2009 Construction at $967.5 Billion Annual Rate

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $665.9 billion, 1.6 percent (±1.1%) below the revised January estimate of $676.9 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $275.1 billion in February, 4.3 percent (±1.3%) below the revised January estimate of $287.4 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $390.7 billion in February, 0.3 percent (±1.1%)* above the revised January estimate of $389.5 billion.