by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2009 02:45:00 PM

From Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register: No recovery seen for housing until late 2010. A few excerpts (not in order):

Nobody has a bigger stack of housing data than the First American real estate information empire from Santa Ana. We figured we’d ask Sam Khater, an economist at First American’s CoreLogic unit, what’s up ...

Lansner: Bottom this year?

Sam: I think, absolutely, there first chance for any kind of housing recovery is late 2010. We’ll see some bumps from the stimulus and the economy will look somewhat better than it really is. But we won’t see any housing bottom — and I’m talking prices — until late 2010. To me, the price is the most important thing.
...
Lansner: We seem to be enjoying a sales bump recently …

Sam: ... What you’re seeing in California is an uptick in distressed sales. All things being equal, the distressed sales will eventually wear off and sales will slow again.

... We have to remember what a normal year us. We’re not that far below, in terms of sales. You’ve got to view some of these housing numbers through a long-term series.
emphasis added

It seems most economists are looking for "stabilization" in existing home sales. I've been making the argument for some time that existing home sales will probably fall further, see: Home Sales: The Distressing Gap

And here is a long term graph:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows existing home turnover as a percent of owner occupied units. Sales for 2009 are estimated at the March rate of 4.57 million units.

I've also included inventory as a percent of owner occupied units (all year-end inventory, except 2009 is for March).

The turnover rate is just below the median of the last 40 years - and will probably fall further in coming years.

Also - notice when Khater is talking a housing "bottom" he makes it clear he is talking prices. There are typically two bottoms for a housing bust - the first is for residential investment (new home sales, housing starts, etc.) and the second - usually much later - is for existing home prices.