by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2009 11:06:00 AM

Note: Any reading below 100 shows contraction. So the improvement in the index to 97.7 means the business is still contracting, but contracting at a slower pace.

From the National Restaurant Association (NRA): Restaurant Industry Outlook Improved as the Restaurant Performance Index Rose for the Third Consecutive Month

The outlook for the restaurant industry improved in March, as the National Restaurant Association’s comprehensive index of restaurant activity rose for the third consecutive month. The Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 97.7 in March, up 0.2 percent from February and 1.3 percent during the last three months.

“Although the RPI remained below 100 for the 17th consecutive month, which signals contraction, there are clear signs of improvement,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of Research and Information Services for the Association. “Restaurant operators reported a positive six-month economic outlook for the first time in 18 months, and capital spending plans rose to a 9-month high.”
...
Restaurant operators also reported negative customer traffic levels for the 19th consecutive month in March.
...
Capital spending activity in the restaurant industry held relatively steady in recent months.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.

The index values above 100 indicate a period of expansion; index values below 100 indicate a period of contraction.

Based on this indicator, the restaurant industry has been contracting since November 2007.