by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2009 02:17:00 PM

Way back in 2005 I stated the obvious:

"Of all the areas experiencing a housing boom, the areas most at risk have had the greatest increase in real estate related jobs. These jobs include home construction, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, inspectors and more.
...
Not surprisingly, California has become more dependent on construction than the rest of the country, and construction has really boomed in San Diego. But San Diego has nothing on the Inland Empire.

I believe that areas like the Inland Empire will suffer the most when housing activity slows."

To update the graphs:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph (using Not Seasonally Adjusted data) shows construction as a percent of total employment for the Inland Empire, California and the U.S.

Although there was a surge in construction employment in the U.S., and about a 50% increase in California (as a percent of total employment), construction employment doubled (as a percent of total employment) in the Inland Empire.

Now construction employment in the Inland Empire - as a percent of total employment - is getting close to the lows of the early '90s.

The second graph shows the percent of construction employment and the unemployment rate for the Inland Empire.

With the housing bust, the percent construction employment has declined sharply and the unemployment rate has risen to around 13% (about the same as Detroit).