by Calculated Risk on 6/01/2009 10:17:00 AM

Private residential construction spending is 63.2% below the peak of early 2006.

Private non-residential construction spending is 4.4% below the peak of last September.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential construction spending was up slightly in April (compared to March), and nonresidential spending has peaked and will probably decline sharply over the next two years.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change for private residential and nonresidential construction spending.

Nonresidential spending is essentially flat on a year-over-year basis, and will turn strongly negative as projects are completed. Residential construction spending is still declining YoY, although the YoY change is starting to be less negative.

As I've noted before, these will probably be two key stories for 2009: the collapse in private non-residential construction, and the probable bottom for residential construction spending. Both stories are just developing ...

From the Census Bureau: April 2009 Construction at $968.7 Billion Annual Rate

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $657.3 billion, 1.4 percent (±1.3%) above the revised March estimate of $648.2 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $249.2 billion in April, 0.7 percent (±1.3%)* above the revised March estimate of $247.4 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $408.2 billion in April, 1.8 percent (±1.3%) above the revised March estimate of $400.8 billion.