by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2009 10:00:00 AM

Still contracting, but the pace of contraction has slowed "dramatically".

Here is the Philadelphia Fed Index released today: Business Outlook Survey.

Declines in the region's manufacturing sector were much less in evidence in June, according to results for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments showed notable improvement, suggesting recent declines have lessened dramatically. Indicative of ongoing weakness, however, firms reported sustained declines in employment and work hours this month.

The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from -22.6 in May to -2.2 this month, its highest reading since September 2008 when the index was positive for one month...

Broad indicators of future activity showed significant improvement this month. The future general activity index remained positive for the sixth consecutive month and increased markedly from 47.5 in May to 60.1, its highest reading since September 2003 (see Chart). The index has now increased 71 points since its trough in December.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Philly index for the last 40 years.

"The index has been negative for 18 of the past 19 months, a span that corresponds to the current recession."