by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2009 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 433 thousand. This is an increase from the revised rate of 395 thousand in June.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Note the Red columns for 2009. This is the 3rd lowest sales for July since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963.

In July 2009, 39 thousand new homes were sold (NSA); the record low was 31 thousand in July 1982; the record high for July was 117 thousand in 2005.

The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales fell off a cliff, but are now 32% above the low in January.

Sales of new one-family houses in July 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 ...

This is 9.6 percent (±13.4%) above the revised June rate of 395,000, but is 13.4 percent (±12.9%) below the July 2008 estimate of 500,000.

And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

There were 7.5 months of supply in July - significantly below the all time record of 12.4 months of supply set in January.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 271,000. This represents a supply of 7.5months at the current sales rate..

The final graph shows new home inventory.

Note that new home inventory does not include many condos (especially high rise condos), and areas with significant condo construction will have much higher inventory levels.

Months-of-supply and inventory have both peaked for this cycle, and there is a good chance that sales of new homes has also bottomed for this cycle. However any further recovery in sales will likely be modest because of the huge overhang of existing homes for sale.

I'll have more later ...