by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2009 04:08:00 PM
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
Market and StuyTown Update
Since I haven't posted this in some time ...
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".
Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.
And on StuyTown from the NY Times: Buyers of Huge Manhattan Complex Face Default Risk (ht Ann)
[T]he buyers [of Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village in Manhattan] are running out of time and money. Jerry and Rob Speyer and their partner, BlackRock Realty, who together paid $5.4 billion ... have nearly exhausted an additional $890 million set aside for apartment renovations, landscaping and interest payments. Rents are down 25 percent from their peak.At that valuation - about two-thirds off the total $6.3 billion price - the equity is wiped out, the mezzanine debt is wiped out, and the first mortgage will take a significant haircut.
Real estate analysts say that the partnership’s money will run out as soon as December and that the owners are at “high risk” of default on $4.4 billion in loans.
...
A recent report from Realpoint, a credit rating agency, estimates that the property has a value today of only $2.13 billion.
...
At Stuyvesant Town, there is a $3 billion first mortgage, or commercial mortgage-backed security, and a $1.4 billion second loan, known as “mezzanine debt” held by SL Green, the government of Singapore and others.
Finally, there is $1.9 billion in equity put up by Tishman Speyer, BlackRock and their investors.