by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2009 09:48:00 AM

Click on cartoon for larger image in new window. Cartoon from Eric G. Lewis www.EricGLewis.com (site coming soon)

Actually the recession is not "officially" over until the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determines the end of the recession.

It took the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee over a year and half after the 2001 recession ended to call the trough of the cycle. And it took 21 months after the 1990-1991 recession ended for NBER to date the end of the recession.

The previous NBER announcements make it clear that NBER will not date the trough of the recession until certain economic indicators - like real GDP - are above the pre-recession levels. Any downturn before economic activity reaches pre-recession levels will probably be considered a continuation of the recession that started in December 2007.

Here is the NBER dating procedure.