by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2009 02:24:00 PM

Note: this is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports.

Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Loaded inbound traffic was 14.7% below October 2008.

Loaded outbound traffic was 1.0% above October 2008.

There was a clear recovery in U.S. exports earlier this year; however exports have been mostly flat since May. This year will be the 3rd best year for export traffic at LA area ports, behind 2007 and 2008.

For imports, traffic is below the October 2003 level, and 2009 will be the weakest year for import traffic since 2002.

Note: Imports usually peak in the August through October period (as retailers import goods for the holidays) and then decline in November.

The lack of further export growth to Asia is discouraging ...

On imports - last year retailers were stuck with too much inventory (the supply chain is long and imports didn't adjust as quickly as exports). It appears retailers will have much less inventory this year for the holidays.