by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 07:25:00 PM

In the Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead post, I included a consensus forecast of a decline in light vehicle sales to 10.4 million units in February, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. That may be a little high ...

From The Detroit News: Snowstorms, Toyota problems cut into February auto sales

When results are released Tuesday, automotive research firm Edmunds.com predicts retail sales will increase 14.2 percent from a year earlier, while research firm TrueCar.com expects a nearly 9 percent bump. ... [On a SAAR basis] Edmunds predicting 10.6 million U.S. sales ... while TrueCar.com anticipates 10.04 million

"We will have to wait until March to see if February is an aberration or a fundamental sign that the recovery in sales will be more subdued than hoped," [Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' director of industry analysis said].

The WSJ notes that J.D. Power & Associates is forecasting sales at a 9.9 million SAAR in February.

Right now it looks like both residential investment and auto sales will both be lower in Q1 than in Q4 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Not a great start to 2010 ...