by Calculated Risk on 2/18/2010 11:43:00 AM

The Fed's favorite house price indicator from First American CoreLogic’s LoanPerformance ...

From LoanPerformance: Home Prices Exhibit “Improving Declines”

On a month-over-month basis the national average of home prices declined moderately, falling by 1.0 percent in December 2009 compared to November 2009, indicating seasonal slowing in a fledging housing recovery.
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Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to December 2009) is -28.2 percent. Excluding distressed properties, the peak-to-current change in the HPI is -21.5 percent.
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"The housing market, after experiencing stabilization in many, but not all, markets in the spring and summer of 2009 is going through the typical seasonal winter malaise," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic. "The big unknown for the 2010 spring selling season continues to be the future of the federal home buyer tax credit."
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First American CoreLogic’s forecast continues to project declining house prices into the spring months. The national HPI is projected to fall an average of 4.4 percent through April 2010, as high levels of unemployment, housing inventories and foreclosures continue to exert downward pressure on prices.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the national LoanPerformance data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index is off 3.7% over the last year, and off 28.2% from the peak.

The index has declined for four consecutive months.