by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2010 12:25:00 PM

The good news for hotels is it appears the occupancy rate might be at or near the bottom. Of course - as I noted earlier - the bad news for hotels is the average daily rate (ADR) is still falling because the occupancy rate is so low. Therefore RevPAR (revenue per available room) is still falling.

From HotelNewsNow.com: Luxury leads chain scale segment increases in STR weekly numbers

Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy ended the week up 1.9 percent to 48.8 percent. Average daily rate dropped 5.6 percent to finish the week at US$94.92. Revenue per available room for the week fell 3.8 percent to finish at US$46.31.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the Year-over-year change in the occupancy rate using a 3 week average.

It is possible the occupancy rate has bottomed, but at a very low level.

The second graph shows the occupancy rate by week since 2000, and the rolling 52 week average occupancy rate.

Note: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The graph shows the distinct seasonal pattern for the occupancy rate; higher in the summer because of leisure/vacation travel, and lower on certain holidays. Business travel will be the key over the next few months.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com