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Thursday, May 27, 2010

Next Stimulus Package Scaled Back

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2010 11:21:00 AM

From Lori Montgomery at the WaPo: Bill on jobless benefits, state financial help scaled back

[C]ongressional leaders reached a tentative agreement Wednesday to scale back a package that would have devoted nearly $200 billion to jobless benefits and other economic provisions ...

Under Wednesday's agreement, the overall cost of the package would drop from more than $190 billion to about $145 billion ... Unemployment benefits would be extended through the end of November, instead of through the end of the year ... $32 billion in expiring tax credits and deductions for businesses and individuals and $24 billion to help cash-strapped state governments.
The "extension" of the unemployment benefits doesn't add more weeks; it extends the eligibility for the previously expanded benefits.

The spending from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) starts to decline in Q3, and that will be a drag on GDP growth. However the additional spending (including this proposed package) will probably keep the overall contribution to GDP growth slightly positive in Q3, but will be a drag on GDP growth starting in Q4 as spending declines.