by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2010 01:17:00 PM
Monday, July 19, 2010
Summers: More Fiscal Stimulus Now, Reduce Deficits when economy has recovered
Lawrence Summers writes in the Financial Times: America’s sensible stance on recovery
[W]here an economy’s level of output is constrained by demand and the central bank has at best a limited ability to relax that constraint because it cannot reduce interest rates to below zero, fiscal policy can have a significant impact on output and employment.It looks like the only additional stimulus will be an extension of the emergency unemployment benefits - and even that isn't clear.
...[and] there is a very strong presumption that there are likely to be beneficial effects from the expectation that budget deficits will be reduced after an economy has recovered and is no longer demand-constrained.
...
In most of the industrialised world, given that economies are in or near liquidity trap conditions, it is [these] propositions that should control policy. Together they make a case for fiscal actions that maintain or increase demand in the short run while reassuring markets on sustainability over the medium term.