RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2010 02:45:00 PM
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Weekly Schedule for September 19th
Note: The previous post is a summary of last week with graphs.
Four key housing reports will be released this week: the September homebuilder confidence survey (Monday), August housing starts (Tuesday), August existing home sales (Thursday), and August new home sales (Friday). Also the FOMC meets on Tuesday.
Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) for August and the “Housing Scorecard”
Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) for July.
10 AM: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. This index collapsed following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The consensus is for a slight increase to 14 from 13 in August (still very depressed).
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for August. Housing starts also collapsed following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The consensus is for a slight increase to 550K (SAAR) in August from 546K in July.
10:00 AM: the BLS will release the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report for August.
2:15 PM: The FOMC statement will be released. I don't expect any significant changes to the statement compared to the statement following the August meeting.
Early: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for August will be released (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). This has been showing ongoing contraction, and usually this leads investment in non-residential structures (hotels, malls, office) by 9 to 12 months.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly over the last couple months - suggesting reported home sales through at least October will be very weak.
10:00 AM: 10:00 FHFA House Price Index for July. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for about the same as last week (450 thousand).
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for an increase to 4.1 million (SAAR) in August from 3.83 million in July. Housing economist Tom Lawler is projecting 4.1 million SAAR. In addition to sales, the level of inventory and months-of-supply will be very important (since months-of-supply impacts prices).
10:00 AM: Conference Board's index of leading indicators for August. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in this index.
1:00 PM ET: Former Fed Chairman Paul A. Volcker gives the Keynote address at the Chicago Fed and IMF Thirteenth Annual International Banking Conference
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.0% decline in durable good orders.
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a slight increase in sales to 290K (SAAR) in August from 276K in July.
1:00 PM: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economic outlook at the 2010 Kentucky Economic Association Annual Conference
4:30 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Conference Co-sponsored by the Center for Economic Policy Studies and the Bendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University, Princeton, N.J: "Implications of the Financial Crisis for Economics"
After 4:00 PM: The FDIC will probably have another busy Friday afternoon ...
