by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2010 02:00:00 PM

From the November 2-3, 2010 (and conference call held on October 15, 2010) FOMC meeting.

The Fed revised down their forecasts again:

Economic projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
	2010	2011	2012
Change in Real GDP	2.4 to 2.5%	3.0 to 3.6%	3.6 to 4.5%
June projections	3.0% to 3.5%	3.5% to 4.2%	3.5% to 4.5%
April projections	3.2% to 3.7%	3.4% to 4.5%	3.5% to 4.5%
Unemployment Rate	9.5 to 9.7%	8.9 to 9.1%	7.7 to 8.2%
June projections	9.2% to 9.5%	8.3% to 8.7%	7.1% to 7.5%
April projections	9.1% to 9.5%	8.1% to 8.5%	6.6% to 7.5%
PCE Inflation	1.2 to 1.4%	1.1 to 1.7%	1.1 to 1.8%
June projections	1.0% to 1.1%	1.1% to 1.6%	1.0% to 1.7%
April projection	1.2% to 1.5%	1.1% to 1.9%	1.2% to 2.0%

So the Fed expects slower growth, higher unemployment and about the same rate of inflation. The big changes were the increase in the forecast unemployment rates for 2011 and 2012, and the decrease in GDP for 2010 and 2011.

There was apparently some significant disagreement:

Participants generally agreed that the most likely economic outcome would be a gradual pickup in growth with slow progress toward maximum employment. They also generally expected that inflation would remain, for some time, below levels the Committee considers most consistent, over the longer run, with maximum employment and price stability. However, participants held a range of views about the risks to that outlook. Most saw the risks to growth as broadly balanced, but many saw the risks as tilted to the downside. Similarly, a majority saw the risks to inflation as balanced; some, however, saw downside risks predominating while a couple saw inflation risks as tilted to the upside. Participants also differed in their assessments of the likely benefits and costs associated with a program of purchasing additional longer-term securities in an effort to provide additional monetary stimulus, though most saw the benefits as exceeding the costs in current circumstances.