by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2010 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 283 thousand. This is down from 308 thousand in September.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted or annualized).

Note the Red columns for 2010. In October 2010, 23 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). This is a new record low for October.

The previous record low for the month of October was 29 thousand in 1981; the record high was 105 thousand in October 2005.

The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 47 years. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales of new single-family houses in October 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 283,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.1 percent (±16.1%)* below the revised September rate of 308,000 and is 28.5 percent (±12.6%) below the October 2009 estimate of 396,000.

And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

Months of supply increased to 8.6 in October from 7.9 in September. The all time record was 12.4 months of supply in January 2009. This is still high (less than 6 months supply is normal).

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 202,000. This represents a supply of 8.6 months at the current sales rate.

The final graph shows new home inventory.

The 283 thousand annual sales rate for October is just above the all time record low in August (275 thousand). This was the weakest October on record and well below the consensus forecast of 314 thousand.

This was another very weak report.