by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2010 08:55:00 AM

A summary of last week - mostly in graphs. Note: A key story all week concerned the possible bailout of Ireland.

Trade Deficit decreased in September

The Census Bureau reported:

[T]otal September exports of $154.1 billion and imports of $198.1 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $44.0 billion, down from $46.5 billion in August, revised.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through September 2010.

After trade bottomed in the first half of 2009, imports increased much faster than exports. Over the last five months, both exports and imports have been relatively flat.

The trade deficit will probably increase in October since oil prices increased, and China reported a higher trade surplus for October.

Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index declines in October, "Signals Weaker Holiday Season"

This graph shows the index since January 1999.

Press Release: Over the Road Trucked Shipping Decline Signals Weaker Holiday Season, Reports Latest Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers, and consumers, fell 0.6 percent in October following a decline of 0.5 percent in September and a decline of 1.0 percent in August. ... “We have had a recovery ‘time out,’” summarized [Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast].

NFIB: Small Business Optimism improves slightly

From National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Optimism improves slightly

Optimism rose again in October, but the index remains stuck in the recession zone established over the past two years, not a good reading even with a 2.7 point improvement over September. This is still a recession level reading based on Index values since 1973. However, job creation plans did turn positive and job reductions ceased.

The above graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. Although the index increased to 91.7 in October (highest since May), it is still at recessionary level according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

The next graph shows the net hiring plans over the next three months.

Hiring plans have turned slightly positive again. According to NFIB: "Average employment growth per firm was 0 in October, one of the best performances in years. ... Over the next three months, eight percent plan to increase employment (unchanged), and 13 percent plan to reduce their workforce (down three points), yielding a seasonally adjusted net one percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a four point gain from September."

And the third graph shows the percent of small businesses saying "poor sales" is their biggest problem.

Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations (that usually means business is good!), but now their self reported biggest problem is lack of demand.

Consumer Sentiment increases slightly in November

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased slightly in November to 69.3 from 67.7 in October.

This was a big story in when consumer sentiment collapsed again in July. Since then this measure of consumer sentiment has mostly moved sideways at a fairly low level.

In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator.

Other Economic Stories ...

Lawler: Early Read on October Existing Home Sales

From RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Activity Decreases 4 Percent in October

Private Label Security REO

From the Association of American Railroads: October 2010 Rail Traffic Continues Mixed Progress

Labor Force Participation Rate: What will happen?

Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 898 Institutions

Best wishes to all.