Lawler: Early Read on November Existing Home Sales

CR Note: This is from housing economist Tom Lawler:

"Based on available data I’ve seen so far, I estimate that existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million in November, up 3.2% from October’s pace, though down 29.6% from last November’s tax-credit-goosed pace. The YOY % decline in sales on an unadjusted basis should be around 27.2-27.3%, with the “SA/NSA” difference related to the calendar/different business day counts.

The incoming data from MLS/realtors/boards are broadly consistent with the realtor.com data pointing to a 3.4% drop in the existing homes-for-sale inventory in November, and if anything the local reports suggest the possibility of a somewhat larger decline."

CR Note: A 3.4% decline in inventory, and sales of 4.57 million SAAR would put the months-of-supply at about 9.8 months in November. That would follow four straight months of double digit supply. Based on this early forecast, inventory would be up about 6% YoY.

Sales are seasonally adjusted, but inventory is not. There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory (inventory will be even lower in December as sellers take their homes off the market for the holidays). So the seasonal decline in inventory makes the months-of-supply look better.

This is about the same level of sales as in September. Here is the graph gallery for existing home sales through October.

Existing home sales for November will be released on Wednesday December 22nd at 10 AM ET.