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This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the December release for the HMI and the October data for starts (November housing starts will be released tomorrow).
This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move in the same direction - although there is plenty of noise month-to-month.
Press release from the NAHB: Builder Confidence Remains Flat in December
Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes remained unchanged in December from the previous month at 16 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.
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Two out of three components of December's HMI remained unchanged from the previous month, including the component gauging current sales conditions (which remained at 16) and the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months (which was flat at 25). The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell a single point, to 11.
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