by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2010 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Continue Recovery

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 3.5 percent to 92.2 based on contracts signed in November from a downwardly revised 89.1 in October [revised down from 89.3]. The index is 5.0 percent below a reading of 97.0 in November 2009. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

This suggests existing home sales in December and January will be somewhat higher than in November.

Also ...

• The Chicago PMI for December (released this morning) was stronger than expected. The headline index was 68.6, well above the 62.5 expected.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER achieved its highest level since July 1988, expanding for the fifteenth consecutive month.

Production (at 74.0) "reached its highest levels since October 2004", and new orders (73.6) "improved to 2005 levels". The employment index increased to 60.2 from 56.3 in November. This continues the trend of stronger reports recently.