by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2011 10:15:00 PM
Monday, January 03, 2011
House Prices: More Pessimistic Views
From CNBC: Home Prices Will Decline for Years: Zuckerman (ht Scott)
Mort Zuckerman ... blamed the continuing price decline on the so-called shadow inventory of foreclosed homes that's yet to come on the market.And from MarketWatch: S&P warns on ‘shadow inventory’ (ht jb)
“That’s what’s going to put downward pressure on residential prices,” Zuckerman added, “And in my judgment, that’s going to continue for several years.”
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said Monday that it’s taking longer for the U.S. housing market to absorb foreclosed homes, which means there may be a major drag on prices for a few more years.My view is house prices - as measured by the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic repeat sales indexes - will decline another 5% to 10%. I think it is likely that nominal house prices will bottom in 2011, but that real house prices (inflation adjusted) will decline for another two to three years. (See: Question #1 for 2011: House Prices)