by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2011 03:43:00 PM

First on oil and gasoline:

• From Jim Hamilton at Econbrowser: What will Saudi Arabia do?. Hamilton reviews the reaction to Saudi Arabia to past oil disruptions:

One key question in determining the impact of instability in Libya and elsewhere on world oil markets is how much other countries can and will increase production to offset the shortfall. Here I review the critical role of Saudi Arabia in past disruptions and discuss the current situation ...

And he concludes:

If all of Libyan production gets knocked out, we'd need 1.8 mb/d to replace it. If the Saudis weren't able or willing to go above those production levels in 2008 when oil was selling for over $140 a barrel, why would you expect them to do so now with West Texas only at $106?

My answer is, I don't.

• From David Baker at the SF Chronicle: California gas to hit $4 soon

California appears poised to win a dubious distinction - becoming the first state this year to pay an average of $4 for a gallon of regular gas.

And Libya looks like a prolonged civil war:

• From the NY Times: Qaddafi Forces Batter Rebels in Strategic Refinery Town

Forces loyal to the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, repulsed a rebel push to the west on Wednesday and then counterattacked with airstrikes and increasingly accurate artillery fire on the strategic refinery town of Ras Lanuf, which the rebels have held for several days.

In the western half of the country, elite government troops continued to pound the besieged, rebel-held city of Zawiyah, only 30 miles from Colonel Qaddafi’s stronghold, the capital city of Tripoli.

• From the Telegraph: Libya live

• From Bloomberg: Qaddafi Forces Strike Oil Ports to Halt Rebels’ Advance

• From al Jazeera: Libya Live Blog - March 9

10:28pm Libyan oil output is down by more than two-thirds from 1.6 million barrels per day to just 500,000 amid the uprising, National Oil Corporation head, Shukri Ghanem, said on Wednesday.