by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2011 11:09:00 PM

From Edmunds.com: Ford: Industry Car Sales to Rise after June

Ford Motor Co.’s chief sales analyst predicts June car sales will be level with or somewhat better than those in May, but after June, the sales rate will begin to rise through year-end. “There are some indications that May and June could be the slowest sales rates of the year,” George Pipas told media Wednesday. “There are positive signs in June’s results that suggest at some point in the second half, we’ll return to a sales rate of the first half or better.”
...
Pipas said July should be improved but it won’t be until at least August before the U.S. industry returns to a 13 million or more SAAR due to inventory shortages of Japanese automakers caused by the March 11 earthquake.

June sales will be announced tomorrow and no one expects a huge rebound. A few estimates:

• From Bloomberg: Auto Sales at 12 Million Rate Slowed by Missing Inventory: Cars

June light-vehicle deliveries, to be released tomorrow, may have run at a 12 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the average estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be an increase from 11.8 million in May

• From Edmunds.com:

The estimated sales volume translates to a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 11.9 million in June, according to Edmunds.com analysts

• From TrueCar.com:

The June 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 12.17 million new car sales, up from 11.83 million in May 2011 and up from 11.16 million in June 2010

• From J.D. Power and Associates:

[The] forecast by J.D. Power would mean a seasonally adjusted annualized rate ... for total light vehicles of 12 million

The rebound - according to Ford - should show up in July and August.