by Calculated Risk on 6/08/2011 07:22:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.4 percent from one week earlier. ... The adjusted Refinance Index increased 1.3 percent from the previous week.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.54 percent from 4.58 percent, with points decreasing to 0.95 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the lowest 30-year contract rate since November 19, 2010.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The four week average of purchase activity is moving sideways at about 1997 levels. Of course there is a very high percentage of cash buyers right now, but this suggests weak existing home sales through mid-year (not counting cash buyers). Note that mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest level since last November.