by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2011 03:20:00 PM

There are a few interesting pieces of data in this article ...

From Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register: 1st gain in O.C. construction jobs in 4 years

The number of Orange County construction workers in May was 200 jobs higher than a year ago. That’s no hiring spree but it’s the first year-over-year gain since December 2006.
...
This is not the only sign of stability in Orange County construction. Local builders pulled 935 building permits in May. That’s up fourfold in a year — and the most for a May in nine years, according to figures from the Construction Industry Research Board.

Cypress Village, an Irvine Co. apartment complex in northern Irvine, accounted for nearly three-fourths of the total permits issued in May and pushed multi-family permits to a 22-year high for May. But it wasn’t all rentals. May’s 250 single-family building permits were the most for that type of Orange County housing in a May in four years.

One of my predictions for 2011 was that residential construction employment would increase nationally for the first time since 2005. This table below shows the annual change in construction jobs (total, residential and non-residential) and through May for 2011.

	Annual Change in Payroll jobs (000s)
Year	Total Construction Jobs	Residential Construction Jobs	Non-Residential
2002	-85	88	-173
2003	127	161	-34
2004	290	230	60
2005	416	268	148
2006	152	-62	214
2007	-198	-273	75
2008	-787	-510	-277
2009	-1053	-431	-622
2010	-149	-113	-36
Through May 2011	31	22	9

Not much - but it is a start.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the number of construction payroll jobs (blue line), and the number of construction jobs as a percent of total non-farm payroll jobs (red line).

Construction employment is down 2.197 million jobs from the peak in April 2006, but up 31 thousand jobs so far this year (through May).

Unfortunately this graph is a combination of both residential and non-residential construction employment. The BLS only started breaking out residential construction employment fairly recently (residential building employees in 1985, and residential specialty trade contractors in 2001). Usually residential investment (and residential construction) lead the economy out of recession, and non-residential construction usually lags the economy. Because this graph is a blend, it masks the usual pickup in residential construction following previous recessions. Of course residential investment didn't lead the economy this time because of the huge overhang of existing housing units.

Also note the pickup in single family permits mentioned in Lansner's article (that fits with my thoughts yesterday).

I think this employment change - from layoffs to some small employment increases - is a kind of a big story.